South Africa’s gross tax revenue forecast for 2026/27 has been raised by R17.1 billion after collections from corporate income tax, dividends tax and VAT performed better than expected.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced the revision while delivering the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement in Parliament on Wednesday.

What changed

The improved outlook lifts the revenue estimate above the figure presented in February. Treasury expects gross tax revenue to increase from R2.14 trillion in the current year to R2.53 trillion by 2029/30.

A large share of the near-term improvement is linked to stronger commodity prices. Godongwana cautioned that these gains are not expected to last across the medium term, which means government cannot treat the R17.1 billion revision as a permanent windfall.

Why the revision matters

Higher revenue gives the fiscus slightly more room to manage spending and debt pressures. It does not remove the need for careful budgeting, especially because commodity-linked tax receipts can change quickly when global prices weaken.

The result also reflects stronger collections from several major tax streams. Corporate income tax, dividends tax and VAT all contributed to the upward revision.

SARS targets the illicit economy

Godongwana said the South African Revenue Service is strengthening revenue administration and improving compliance. Customs and excise modernisation includes enhanced cargo scanning, track-and-trace systems and stronger frontline enforcement.

These measures are aimed at disrupting illegal alcohol and tobacco networks that reduce legitimate tax collections and undermine compliant businesses.

Government plans to give a fuller update on the National Illicit Economy Disruption Programme in the main Budget next year.

The bottom line

The R17.1 billion revision is positive for the public finances, but Treasury’s warning matters: part of the gain comes from commodity prices and may fade. The stronger forecast improves the short-term picture without eliminating South Africa’s wider fiscal risks.

Source: SAnews, reporting on the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement.

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