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SA agricultural exports grew 10% to US$4.1 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Agbiz research shows strong demand across several markets, but sales to the United States remained below their year-earlier level despite a quarterly recovery.
South Africa’s agricultural sector delivered another quarter of export growth, supported by ample harvests, strong international demand and improved prices for various products.
According to Agbiz chief economist Mr Wandile Sihlobo, agricultural exports totalled US$4.1 billion in the second quarter of 2026, an increase of 10% compared with the same period in 2025. First-half exports reached US$7.8 billion, up 11% year on year.
The findings appear in Agbiz research supplied to SA Business Lens following a media enquiry about South Africa–US trade and the protection of export jobs.
Who is Agbiz?
Agbiz, the Agricultural Business Chamber, represents businesses across the agricultural value chain. Its work includes economic research and engagement on policy and trade issues affecting agribusiness. Mr Wandile Sihlobo is its chief economist.
SA agricultural exports in Q2 2026: the key figures
Citrus, apples, pears, maize, wine, avocados, wool, sugar, fruit juices, grapes and nuts were among the products supporting export earnings.
Agricultural imports increased by 12% year on year to US$2.0 billion. Export earnings remained substantially higher, leaving the sector with a US$2.1 billion trade surplus, up 9% from the previous year.
Exports outpace imports
Trade value in US$ billion
| Indicator | Q2 2026 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Agricultural exports | US$4.1 billion | +10% |
| Agricultural imports | US$2.0 billion | +12% |
| Agricultural trade surplus | US$2.1 billion | +9% |
Where South Africa’s agricultural exports go
Africa remained South Africa’s largest regional agricultural market, purchasing 40% of export value in the second quarter. Asia and the Middle East together accounted for 24%, while the European Union purchased 21%. The Americas accounted for 5%, with the remaining 10% going to other markets, including the United Kingdom.
Africa takes the largest share
Share of South Africa’s agricultural export value
| Market | Share | Products identified in the report |
|---|---|---|
| Africa | 40% | Maize, apples, pears, processed foods, sugar, fruit juices and vegetable oils |
| Asia and Middle East | 24% | Citrus, apples, pears, maize, wool, nuts, meat, berries and soybeans |
| European Union | 21% | Citrus, avocados and other fruit, wine, fruit juices and nuts |
| Americas | 5% | Citrus, wine, grapes, stone fruit, apples, pears and nuts |
| Rest of world, including UK | 10% | Not separately detailed |
Middle Eastern markets alone purchased US$332 million worth of South African agricultural products, up 1% year on year and representing about 8% of total agricultural exports. This share is already included in the combined Asia and Middle East figure.
US sales recover, but remain below 2025
South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US reached US$123 million in the second quarter of 2026. That represented a 56% improvement from the first quarter, but a 25% decline compared with the second quarter of 2025.
Mr Wandile Sihlobo’s analysis explains that exporters shipped unusually large volumes during the 90-day pause before higher US tariffs took effect in 2025. This elevated the base against which the latest second-quarter figures are measured.
| Comparison | Change in Q2 2026 US sales |
|---|---|
| Against Q1 2026 | +56% |
| Against Q2 2025 | −25% |
These percentages use different comparison periods.
The July report recorded weaker sales later in 2025. Agricultural exports to the US fell 11% year on year to US$144 million in the third quarter, followed by a 39% decline to US$81 million in the fourth quarter.
Full-year agricultural exports to the US totalled US$504 million in 2025, down 3% from 2024. Mr Wandile Sihlobo cautioned that the relatively small annual decline did not mean higher tariffs had caused little disruption: substantial shipments earlier in the year had supported the annual total.
Tariffs affect products differently
In his report dated 24 July 2026, Mr Wandile Sihlobo described an increase in the relevant US tariff from 10% to 12.5%, following the earlier 30% tariff. The report stated that competitors including Australia, Peru and Chile also faced the 12.5% level, while oranges, fruit juices and nuts remained exempt from those tariffs at the time.
These are the conditions described in the July research, rather than confirmation of the tariff position in October. The September report identified lower tariffs, alongside other factors, as contributing to the recovery in US-bound exports.
A smaller market can still matter to individual industries
The US purchased 3% of South Africa’s agricultural export value in the second quarter of 2026. Mr Wandile Sihlobo emphasised that this share remained significant because trade with the US is concentrated in particular industries, including citrus, grapes, wine and fruit juices.
The national percentage therefore does not capture the exposure of every producer or exporter. The supplied documents do not quantify employment losses or provide an estimate of jobs at risk.
Why South Africa still imports food
Strong exports do not remove the need for agricultural imports. The report identifies wheat, palm oil, poultry and whisky among the major imported products. It explains that South Africa relies on imported rice and palm oil because domestic climatic conditions are not favourable for their production.
South Africa imports nearly half its annual wheat consumption. Mr Wandile Sihlobo linked the long-term decline in Free State wheat production to unfavourable weather conditions and profitability challenges relative to other crops. Imported poultry accounts for about 20% of annual domestic consumption, according to the report.
Ports and market access remain priorities
Mr Wandile Sihlobo reported improvements at Durban and Eastern Cape ports compared with recent years, helping agricultural exports move with less friction during the second quarter. However, the Port of Cape Town continued to present challenges for export industries.
The report calls for investment in port and rail infrastructure, improvements to roads in farming towns, and continued cooperation between government and organised business.
On trade policy, it recommends protecting existing relationships while expanding access to markets across Asia and the Middle East. For BRICS countries, it argues that discussions should produce practical reductions in tariffs and address plant-health trade barriers.
Mr Wandile Sihlobo also identified the Southern African Customs Union’s collective negotiating arrangements as a constraint on the speed of securing new agreements. The report calls for discussions with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia about greater negotiating flexibility.
South Africa’s agricultural export growth shows the value of selling across several regions. Maintaining that growth will require dependable transport infrastructure, continued access to established buyers and progress in opening additional markets.
Sources: “South Africa’s agricultural exports remained robust in Q2 2026”, dated 7 September 2026, and “A mild rise in tariffs in the US”, dated 24 July 2026, by Mr Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz. Both reports were supplied to SA Business Lens following a media enquiry. Cover image: AI-generated illustration.
Also read: South Africa to phase out car-kit assembly support.
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